ARE DOGS THE NEW CHILDREN? BIRTH RATES AND DOG OWNERSHIP ANALYZED IN STUDY

In some countries, the number of dogs now exceeds the number of children—a reflection of the growing emotional significance dogs hold in our lives. But are people actually choosing dogs over kids? According to Professor Enikő Kubinyi, head of the Department of Ethology at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE), the answer is more complex.

Kubinyi points to a fascinating relationship between rising dog ownership and falling birth rates. In a recent Hungarian survey, 19% of childless adults and even 10% of parents said they valued their dog more than any human. Some dog owners even describe their pets as family—sometimes more important than human relationships.

Pope Francis famously criticized the trend of pampering pets instead of having children, calling it selfish. While some studies support this view—showing that dog owners may find parenthood more burdensome or even experience strain in romantic relationships—Kubinyi argues that’s only part of the picture.

In fact, dog ownership might also encourage parenthood. Couples often treat their dog as a “practice child,” and families with children are more likely to own dogs. Interestingly, studies show women tend to find men with dogs more attractive, potentially boosting chances of fatherhood.

Beyond fertility, dogs serve as “social glue.” Walks create more chances for social interaction, and dogs often help people feel less alone. However, relying solely on pets for emotional support can sometimes hinder human connection—especially when dogs develop behaviour issues.

Kubinyi’s theory, called the “companion dog runaway theory,” suggests our caregiving instincts—hardwired by evolution—are increasingly directed at dogs due to the breakdown of traditional support systems. In modern life, where close-knit communities and cooperative childcare have faded, many people feel they lack meaningful human relationships. Dogs, with their loyalty and emotional responsiveness, naturally fill that gap.

Nearly 90% of Hungarian adults reportedly spend less than an hour a week caring for young children. Meanwhile, pet culture flourishes: businesses boom, owners call themselves “dog moms” and “dog dads,” and social media is full of pet-centered humour and love.

Even dog breeding is evolving. Small, short-nosed breeds that resemble human infants are wildly popular, likely because they trigger our caregiving instincts. However, their health issues often require extra care—making owners feel even more needed.

Kubinyi concludes that rising dog ownership isn’t causing declining birth rates—it’s a symptom of deeper social change. “We need to strengthen family-based support systems and reduce social isolation. Dog ownership is wonderful when it connects people—not when it replaces them.”

The theory has drawn attention in the research community. Human-animal interaction expert Hal Herzog calls it “an important new perspective on the psychological and social roles dogs play in our lives.”